The Roadmap: Genuine Hope or Clever Ploy?
Commentary and Annexe
Harry Hagopian,
LL.D, KOG-KSL
On the occasion of the
presentation of the Quartet’s roadmap to the Israeli and Palestinian
governments, EU Commission President Romano Prodi stated, ‘I welcome the
presentation of the Quartet roadmap to the parties as a means to re-launch the
Peace Process, and an important stabilising factor for the entire region. The
roadmap offers the best chance of achieving the vision of a two-state solution
set out by President Bush last summer.’
EU Commissioner for External
Relations Chris Patten also added, ‘It is in the interest of both parties to
start making rapid progress to implement the provisions of the roadmap with the
support of the international community. Too much blood has been shed: it is
imperative to re-energise the quest for peace without further delay. The
Commission looks forward to working with the Quartet partners in support of the
implementation of the roadmap.’
The roadmap, today a source
of much renewed hope for peace, was designed almost a year ago by
representatives from the European Union, the United Nations, Russia and the
USA. Divided into three phases, its operational process is meant to come to a
conclusion by June 2005. The beginning of each phase is conditional upon the
completion of the previous one. So let me summarise the three inter-faceted
phases and requirements for this process.
Palestinians put a halt to all violence, including incitement to violence, against Israel. Israel will in turn take all necessary steps to help normalise life for Palestinians, including withdrawal from areas re-occupied since September 2000 and the cessation of punitive actions against Palestinians. Israel will also dismantle outposts built since March 2001 and freeze all settlement growth. The Palestinians will undertake political reform. Both sides will issue unequivocal statements guaranteeing the right of the other to statehood.
An international conference,
almost Madrid-like, will launch peace negotiations between Israel and Syria and
Lebanon. That will trigger Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and set the borders
for a future sovereign Palestinian state.
A second international
conference will be convened to endorse agreements reached on a Palestinian
State, as well as to launch final status agreements on issues such as
Jerusalem, settlements and refugees. The final status agreement will trigger
into existence an independent Palestinian state and an end to Israeli
occupation of the West Bank and Gaza.
This is a brief synopsis of
the ‘roadmap’, and the fuller text - as published by the European Commission -
is attached as an annexe to this commentary. So could this roadmap produce in
practice any real and palpable change on the ground?
Having worked quite closely
with the Oslo-led political process in Jerusalem for almost six years, I opted
nonetheless in the last two years to engage with Israelis and Palestinians from
some distance. In so doing, I have concluded that there is little chance for
the latest peace initiative to succeed if the unrelenting violence between
Israelis and Palestinians continues to dictate, or worse subvert, their
respective geo-political and strategic choices. For too long, Israeli Prime
Minister Ariel Sharon has cited suicidal extremist attacks as a total bar to
political discourse with the Palestinian majority. For too long, he has also
refused to accept any parallels with Israeli violence against Palestinians.
Conversely, Chairman Yasser Arafat has also failed to curb the militants linked
to the Fatah faction, let alone to Hamas and Islamic Jihad. In fact, by
squandering the chance for peace at Taba in 2001 for reasons to do largely with
internal politics, both parties lost the political initiative and condemned
their peoples to another two years of painful misery.
The overall challenge facing
both Palestine's newly-appointed Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas (or Abu Mazen),
and his recently re-elected counterpart Ariel Sharon (or Arik), is to have the
boldness of vision to prevent the failures of the past from overshadowing the
hopes for the future. After all, the ultimate aim is shared, peaceful
co-existence, based on a secure, recognised Israel side-by-side with a viable,
independent Palestine. This means doing everything possible to end all violence
and an understanding, most importantly by Israel, that a permanent cessation of
hostilities by all groups and individuals is not achievable or feasible
overnight. Progress towards a lasting settlement for the many cannot simply be
held hostage to the random acts of destruction of the obdurate few. Unless this
unnerving reality is taken on board, Israelis and Palestinians could well stay
doomed to endless episodes of acrimony, hatred, fighting and killing.
Mahmoud Abbas has already
declared himself a foe to all forms of terrorism and violent resistance. He
heads a cabinet that is a product of the very internal reform processes exacted
by Israel and the USA. He won his important battle with Chairman Arafat over
who should control security within the Palestinian territories. He also enjoys
the strong support of the Quartet sponsors of the roadmap. Mr Sharon has also
claimed readiness to deal with him.
While this may amount to an
auspicious start, Mr Abbas' political problems are daunting let alone taxing.
They include the injured pride and political alienation of Chairman Arafat who
has been sidelined somewhat, a perception by some members within the
Palestinian Legislative Council that Mr Abbas is a US puppet, and his
consequential lack of a broadband populist following within Palestine. Another,
potentially more serious difficulty, centres on doubts that he has the clout to
defuse the bombs. Much will depend on whether Mr Abbas displays the requisite
skills to initiate an internal reconciliation process with the political wings of
Hamas and rejectionist groups, and thereby progressively disarm, politically as
much as militarily, the men of violence and their younger acolytes. In this, he
deserves - let alone needs - the support and restraint of a frighteningly
emasculated and incompetent Arab world. And much more vitally, he needs the
unfettered support of the EU and the USA as prime movers and shakers behind
this irenic roadmap.
Sadly, PM Mahmoud Abbas could well prove to be a modern-day Solomon but still fail in his attempts to jumpstart the peace process! His success depends largely on whether PM Sharon is prepared to make a number of ‘painful concessions’ in concrete, practical and parallel terms. This translates into an Israeli implementation of the terms of the roadmap - starting with its withdrawal from occupied Palestinian lands, halting the construction of illegal settlements and accepting permanent and viable Palestinian borders. But PM Sharon might well fudge and prevaricate - and so it is quintessential that the US put its weight behind this document in terms of monitoring and enforcing all its terms.
As is often the case in the Middle East, progress boils down to a matter of will - perhaps a battle of wills. However, in all this, it should not be forgotten that the underlying essence of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is one of occupation. Indeed, the unending occupation of Palestinian territories from June 1967 to date, with the concomitant destruction of Palestinian infrastructure and the misery it has visited upon a long-suffering populace, have together generated a brand of violence that is terrorist in nature but desperate in perspective. Indeed, by removing the occupation, the cancerous growth of terrorism would die down as well. This is a formula that Israel and the USA have been reluctant to take on board ever since the horrendous terror of 11 September 2001. As Israeli politician Yossi Beilin admitted only last week in a television interview, Palestinians must be provided with the incentive to work for peace in order to lift themselves from the hollow hopelessness of their stateless despair. That incentive does not come in the shape of a self-help ‘DIY’ kit they could simply buy for themselves! Nor is it something that even the UN, the EU or Russia can offer them either! It is something that Israel alone can give Palestinians by withdrawing from occupied territories and providing Palestinians with their legal sovereignty. And again, this is where a post-Iraq America can flex its moral muscles.
Israelis are suffering from murderous and indiscriminate violence, and there is no equivocation in my mind that all such terrorism should cease forthwith. It is against every fibre of my religious, legal, moral and humanistic values. However, Palestinians are suffering from ceaseless structural, physical, political and psychological violence too! The UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) reported only last week that the number of Palestinian men and women made homeless since September 2000 by Israel’s campaign of demolishing houses stood at 12,737 on 30 April 2003! In the meantime, the Palestinian GNP has dropped by 51%, whilst unemployment in Gaza has risen to 67% and to 48% in the West Bank. In fact, 75% of the Palestinian population lives under the poverty line (of less than US$2 per day). Daily domestic losses are estimated between US$6-8.6 million. Schools and hospitals are not running properly. Is it any wonder that Palestinians are at their wits’ end? What would a Londoner, Muscovite, New Yorker, Finn, Czech or Thai do under the duress of similar circumstances? Would such men or women simply sit down yoga-like and preach peace, love and harmony? Or could their baser instincts rebel against their better judgements?
Not so long ago, in his Christmas Message 2002, HB Michel Sabbah, Latin-rite Roman Catholic Patriarch of Jerusalem, appealed to the world to put an end to Israeli occupation of Palestinian land. He stated that it was not possible ‘to ask for security on one side, while the other is being oppressed, to have one people occupying when the other is under occupation.’ Prophetic words indeed, but the truth is that the balance of power in the Middle East tilts hugely in Israel’s favour, and it still remains a moot point whether the US Administration would actually deliver on its post-Iraq pledge for true peace in the region. President Bush seems to lack his predecessor's stamina, and the neo-conservatives remain implacably - almost genetically let alone viscerally - opposed to any real pressure against Israel. I suppose time alone might prove or disprove the legacy of the roadmap. Yet, time is a luxury the Middle East can ill afford today!
The roadmap is not a peace treaty. It is merely a ‘map’ that might point the way toward a ‘road’ leading to a just and secure peace predicated upon International law, UNSC Resolutions and the jurisprudence of international legality. Could it wake global conscience from its collective slumber, and save Palestinians and Israelis from their own inbred fears? In fact, would the roadmap represent genuine hope … or prove simply to be another clever ploy?
hbv-H @ 12 May 2003
ANNEXE
A Performance-based Road Map to a Permanent Two-State Solution to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict by the Quartet (European Union, United States, the Russian Federation and the United Nations)
The
following is a performance-based and goal-driven roadmap, with clear phases,
timelines, target dates, and benchmarks aiming at progress through reciprocal
steps by the two parties in the political, security, economic, humanitarian,
and institution-building fields, under the auspices of the Quartet. The
destination is a final and comprehensive settlement of the Israel-Palestinian
conflict by 2005, as presented in President Bush’s speech of 24 June, and
welcomed by the EU, Russia and the UN in the 16 July and 17 September Quartet
Ministerial statements.
A two
state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will only be achieved
through an end to violence and terrorism, when the Palestinian people have a
leadership acting decisively against terror and willing and able to build a
practising democracy based on tolerance and liberty, and through Israel's
readiness to do what is necessary for a democratic Palestinian state to be
established, and a clear, unambiguous acceptance by both parties of the goal of
a negotiated settlement as described below.
The
Quartet will assist and facilitate implementation of the plan, starting in
Phase I, including direct discussions between the parties as required. The plan
establishes a realistic timeline for implementation. However, as a
performance-based plan, progress will require and depend upon the good faith
efforts of the parties, and their compliance with each of the obligations
outlined below. Should the parties perform their obligations rapidly, progress
within and through the phases may come sooner than indicated in the plan.
Non-compliance with obligations will impede progress.
A
settlement, negotiated between the parties, will result in the emergence of an
independent, democratic, and viable Palestinian state living side by side in
peace and security with Israel and its other neighbours. The settlement will
resolve the Israel-Palestinian conflict, and end the occupation that began in
1967, based on the foundations of the Madrid Conference, the principle of land
for peace, UNSCRs 242, 338 and 1397, agreements previously reached by the
parties, and the initiative of Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah - endorsed by the
Beirut Arab League Summit - calling for acceptance of Israel as a neighbour
living in peace and security, in the context of a comprehensive settlement.
This
initiative is a vital element of international efforts to promote a
comprehensive peace on all tracks, including the Syrian-Israeli and Lebanese-Israeli
tracks.
The
Quartet will meet regularly at senior levels to evaluate the parties'
performance on implementation of the plan. In each phase, the parties are
expected to perform their obligations in parallel, unless otherwise indicated.
PHASE I
ENDING TERROR AND VIOLENCE, NORMALISING
PALESTINIAN LIFE, AND BUILDING PALESTINIAN INSTITUTIONS PRESENT TO MAY 2003
In
Phase I, the Palestinians immediately undertake an unconditional cessation of
violence according to the steps outlined below; such action should be
accompanied by supportive measures undertaken by Israel. Palestinians and
Israelis resume security co-operation based on the Tenet work plan to end
violence, terrorism, and incitement through restructured and effective
Palestinian security services. Palestinians undertake comprehensive political
reform in preparation for statehood, including drafting a Palestinian
constitution, and free, fair and open elections upon the basis of those
measures. Israel takes all necessary steps to help normalise Palestinian life.
Israel withdraws from Palestinian areas occupied from September 28, 2000 and
the two sides restore the status quo that existed at that time, as security
performance and co-operation progress. Israel also freezes all settlement
activity, consistent with the Mitchell report.
OUTSET OF PHASE I
Palestinian
leadership issues unequivocal statement reiterating Israel's right to exist in
peace and security and calling for an immediate and unconditional cease-fire to
end armed activity and all acts of violence against Israelis anywhere. All
official Palestinian institutions end incitement against Israel.
Israeli
leadership issues unequivocal statement affirming its commitment to the
two-state vision of an independent, viable, sovereign Palestinian state living
in peace and security alongside Israel, as expressed by President Bush, and
calling for an immediate end to violence against Palestinians everywhere. All
official Israeli institutions end incitement against Palestinians.
SECURITY
Palestinians
declare an unequivocal end to violence and terrorism and undertake visible
efforts on the ground to arrest, disrupt, and restrain individuals and groups
conducting and planning violent attacks on Israelis anywhere.
Rebuilt
and refocused Palestinian Authority security apparatus begins sustained,
targeted, and effective operations aimed at confronting all those engaged in
terror and dismantlement of terrorist capabilities and infrastructure. This
includes commencing confiscation of illegal weapons and consolidation of
security authority, free of association with terror and corruption.
GOI
takes no actions undermining trust, including deportations, attacks on
civilians; confiscation and/or demolition of Palestinian homes and property, as
a punitive measure or to facilitate Israeli construction; destruction of
Palestinian institutions and infrastructure; and other measures specified in
the Tenet Work Plan.
Relying
on existing mechanisms and on-the-ground resources, Quartet representatives
begin informal monitoring and consult with the parties on establishment of a
formal monitoring mechanism and its implementation.
Implementation,
as previously agreed, of U.S. rebuilding, training and resumed security
co-operation plan in collaboration with outside oversight board
(U.S.-Egypt-Jordan). Quartet support for efforts to achieve a lasting,
comprehensive cease-fire.
- All
Palestinian security organisations are consolidated into three services
reporting to an empowered Interior Minister.
-
Restructured/retrained Palestinian security forces and IDF counterparts
progressively resume security co-operation and other undertakings in
implementation of the Tenet work plan, including regular senior-level meetings,
with the participation of U.S. security officials.
Arab
states cut off public and private funding and all other forms of support for
groups supporting and engaging in violence and terror.
All
donors providing budgetary support for the Palestinians channel these funds
through the Palestinian Ministry of Finance's Single Treasury Account.
As
comprehensive security performance moves forward, IDF withdraws progressively
from areas occupied since September 28, 2000 and the two sides restore the
status quo that existed prior to September 28, 2000. Palestinian security
forces redeploy to areas vacated by IDF.
PALESTINIAN INSTITUTION-BUILDING
Immediate
action on credible process to produce draft constitution for Palestinian
statehood. As rapidly as possible, constitutional committee circulates draft
Palestinian constitution, based on strong parliamentary democracy and cabinet
with empowered Prime Minister, for public comment/debate. Constitutional
committee proposes draft document for submission after elections for approval
by appropriate Palestinian institutions.
Appointment
of interim prime minister or cabinet with empowered executive
authority/decision-making body.
GOI
fully facilitates travel of Palestinian officials for PLC and Cabinet sessions,
internationally supervised security retraining, electoral and other reform
activity, and other supportive measures related to the reform efforts.
Continued
appointment of Palestinian ministers empowered to undertake fundamental reform.
Completion of further steps to achieve genuine separation of powers, including
any necessary Palestinian legal reforms for this purpose.
Establishment
of independent Palestinian election commission. PLC reviews and revises
election law.
Palestinian
performance on judicial, administrative, and economic benchmarks, as
established by the International Task Force on Palestinian Reform.
As
early as possible, and based upon the above measures and in the context of open
debate and transparent candidate selection/electoral campaign based on a free,
multiparty process, Palestinians hold free, open, and fair elections.
GOI
facilitates Task Force election assistance, registration of voters, movement of
candidates and voting officials. Support for NGOs involved in the election
process.
GOI
reopens Palestinian Chamber of Commerce and other closed Palestinian
institutions in East Jerusalem based on a commitment that these institutions
operate strictly in accordance with prior agreements between the parties.
HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE
Israel
takes measures to improve the humanitarian situation. Israel and Palestinians
implement in full all recommendations of the Bertini report to improve
humanitarian conditions, lifting curfews and easing restrictions on movement of
persons and goods, and allowing full, safe, and unfettered access of
international and humanitarian personnel.
AHLC
reviews the humanitarian situation and prospects for economic development in
the West Bank and Gaza and launches a major donor assistance effort, including
to the reform effort.
GOI and
PA continue revenue clearance process and transfer of funds, including arrears,
in accordance with agreed, transparent monitoring mechanism.
CIVIL SOCIETY
Continued
donor support, including increased funding through PVOs/NGOs, for people to
people programs, private sector _development and civil society initiatives.
SETTLEMENTS
GOI
immediately dismantles settlement outposts erected since March 2001.
Consistent
with the Mitchell Report, GOI freezes all settlement activity (including
natural growth of settlements).
PHASE II
TRANSITION JUNE 2003-DECEMBER 2003
In the
second phase, efforts are focused on the option of creating an independent
Palestinian state with provisional borders and attributes of sovereignty, based
on the new constitution, as a way station to a permanent status settlement. As
has been noted, this goal can be achieved when the Palestinian people have a
leadership acting decisively against terror, willing and able to build a
practising democracy based on tolerance and liberty. With such a leadership,
reformed civil institutions and security structures, the Palestinians will have
the active support of the Quartet and the broader international community in
establishing an independent, viable, state.
Progress
into Phase II will be based upon the consensus judgement of the Quartet of
whether conditions are appropriate to proceed, taking into account performance
of both parties. Furthering and sustaining efforts to normalise Palestinian
lives and build Palestinian institutions, Phase II starts after Palestinian
elections and ends with possible creation of an independent Palestinian state
with provisional borders in 2003. Its primary goals are continued comprehensive
security performance and effective security co-operation, continued
normalisation of Palestinian life and institution-building, further building on
and sustaining of the goals outlined in Phase I, ratification of a democratic
Palestinian constitution, formal establishment of office of prime minister,
consolidation of political reform, and the creation of a Palestinian state with
provisional borders.
INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE
Convened
by the Quartet, in consultation with the parties, immediately after the
successful conclusion of Palestinian elections, to support Palestinian economic
recovery and launch a process, leading to establishment of an independent Palestinian
state with provisional borders.
- Such
a meeting would be inclusive, based on the goal of a comprehensive Middle East
peace (including between Israel and Syria, and Israel and Lebanon), and based
on the principles described in the preamble to this document.
- Arab
states restore pre-Intifada links to Israel (trade offices, etc.).
-
Revival of multilateral engagement on issues including regional water
resources, environment, economic development, refugees, and arms control
issues.
New
constitution for democratic, independent Palestinian State is finalised and
approved by appropriate Palestinian institutions. Further elections, if
required, should follow approval of the new constitution.
Empowered
reform cabinet with office of Prime Minister formally established, consistent
with draft constitution.
Continued
comprehensive security performance, including effective security co-operation
on the bases laid out in Phase I.
Creation
of an independent Palestinian state with provisional borders through a process
of Israeli-Palestinian engagement, launched by the international conference. As
part of this process, implementation of prior agreements, to enhance maximum
territorial contiguity, including further action on settlements in conjunction
with establishment of a Palestinian state with provisional borders.
Enhanced
international role in monitoring transition, with the active, sustained, and
operational support of the Quartet.
Quartet
members promote international recognition of Palestinian state, including possible
UN membership.
Progress
into Phase III, based on consensus judgement of Quartet, and taking into
account actions of both parties and _Quartet monitoring. Phase III objectives
are consolidation of reform and stabilisation of Palestinian institutions,
sustained, effective Palestinian security performance, and Israeli-Palestinian
negotiations aimed at a permanent status agreement in 2005.
SECOND INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE
Convened
by Quartet, in consultation with the parties, at beginning of 2004 to endorse
agreement reached on an independent Palestinian state with provisional borders
and formally to launch a process with the active, sustained, and operational support
of the Quartet, leading to a final, permanent status resolution in 2005,
including on borders, Jerusalem, refugees, settlements; and, to support
progress toward a comprehensive Middle East settlement between Israel and
Lebanon and Israel and Syria, to be achieved as soon as possible.
Continued
comprehensive, effective progress on the reform agenda laid out by the Task
Force in preparation for final status agreement.
Continued
sustained and effective security performance, and sustained, effective security
co-operation on the bases laid out in Phase I.
International
efforts to facilitate reform and stabilise Palestinian institutions and the
Palestinian economy, in preparation for final status agreement.
Parties
reach final and comprehensive permanent status agreement that ends the
Israel-Palestinian conflict in 2005, through a settlement negotiated between
the parties based on UNSCR 242, 338, and 1397, that ends the occupation that
began in 1967, and includes an agreed, just, fair, and realistic solution to
the refugee issue, and a negotiated resolution on the status of Jerusalem that
takes into account the political and religious concerns of both sides, and
protects the religious interests of Jews, Christians, and Muslims world-wide,
and fulfils the vision of two states, Israel and sovereign, independent,
democratic and viable Palestine, living side-by-side in peace and security.
Arab
state acceptance of full normal relations with Israel and security for all the
states of the region in the context of a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace.
*****